Coronavirus Notes

> Forecast Page

> Country Active Case Trends

> Resources Page


Websites I Use:

Johns Hopkins CSSE Data

worldometer

COVID-19 Projections

WHO Situation Reports

Washington State DOH

 

I have been tracking on my own spreadsheet data for the U.S., Switzerland, Italy, Global.

I track daily: Date/Time of entry, Total Confirmed Cases, New Cases, Total Deaths, New Deaths, Total Recovered, Total Active Cases. These can all be found on the sites above, but for consistency I use Johns Hopkins CSSE data for my charts.

The number of Active Cases is calculated from other data with an easy formula in Excel:

Total Active = Total Confirmed - Total Recovered - Total Deaths
(as in the Johns Hopkins CSSE site footnotes).

I built a totally unscientific forecast for the U.S., which I overlay with reported data as it comes. I will upload images periodically that show how far off my forecast model is from the real situation.

I have learned to be careful using the term "actual." What I mean by "actual" are the numbers that are "actually" reported. But for many, "actual" means the "real" numbers = reported plus unreported (which nobody knows). So I try to use the term "reported."

Link to Forecast Page

 

Other Forecast/Modelling Links

I am not sure how long these will be available without subscriptions.

27 Mar 2020 from The Seattle Times (updated from 26 Mar)

26 Mar 2020 from FiveThirtyEight